EclecticLip

John Robb of Global Guerrillas just wrote a piece for The Oil Drum, which serves as an excellent introduction to the themes he discusses in his blog.

Basically, because of peak oil, there’s little or no excess oil production capacity.  Which means a supply disruption — any supply disruption — has worldwide effects.  Which means that a very small group of militants / vandals / saboteurs can punch way above its weight, in geopolitical terms.  In his words, super-empowerment.
Furthermore, since these groups often sell oil on the side (as a means of self-financing) disrupting oil supplies to raise prices is a matter of entrepreneurial self-interest.  It drains the state of its oil revenues, while it increases the guerrilla group’s own earnings.

In a worst-case scenario, like an entrenched super-Mafia, the guerrilla group can maintain effective control over an area.  The case of northern Mexico, pitting relatively-underfinanced government forces against richly-financed drug gangs, would be a close-to-home example.
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This suggests that peak oil is facilitating the erosion of the nation-state’s  monopoly-of-authority — one of its two defining characteristics (along with territoriality) as per the Westphalian model.

I’m not sure what the full implications are, but it seems peak oil will accelerate the pace at which we find out…

There have been a couple stories recently, about the Canadian and French navies curtailing their activities due to high fuel prices.  Which sounds like the navy equivalent of the army rationing bullets…

I wonder if a sustained high oil price environment would:

(a) cause nation-states to move away from larger military vessels, or

(b) cause nation-states to shift towards nuclear-powered ships.

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Basically, the curtailing of missions by (presumably fossil-fuel powered) naval vessels suggests that, in ecological terms, these aren’t the “fittest” form of naval force projection in a high-oil-price environment…

…just as the recent data on plummetting SUV/truck sales in the US demonstrates that these aren’t the “fittest” form of transportation in this scenario.

Apparently, Jimmy Wales (founder of Wikipedia) says that a wiki / blog needs five committed contributors to be self-sustaining.  I posted to the Global Guerrillas blog entry instead of the source… because the original post is looooooooooooooong.
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I remember reading that it takes at least six molecules to demonstrate the behaviour of all three (common) phases of matter, but can’t find the source.  I’ll document that, when I get a reply.

(The basic premise is that, two molecules is enough to get solid or gas behaviour — it just depends whether the molecules are bonded or not — but liquid behaviour involves a more complex interaction of molecules, and thus needs more than just a couple molecules to “define”.)

A Scottish group announced a hydraulic hybrid system (instead of an magnetic/electric one) for capturing vehicles’ braking-energy. Crucially, they’ve got third-party data to vet their idea.

Still years away, no doubt, but promising. I’ve come across the idea of hydraulic hybrids before, but Artemis seems the most promising. Given that they named a Scottish company after a Greek goddess, you know they’re not primarily a marketing outfit.

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This story about laundry machines which could eliminate most of the water consumed in the washing cycle, also interested me. Given the intensifying water stresses we’re likely to face in the coming decades, it’s coming not a moment too soon. If it successfully commercializes, that is.
At least, they caught the interest of a major appliance-maker; I look forward to seeing the first models on sale in Japan years before they arrive in Canada. I never cease to be amazed at the flourishing variety in appliances there, compared to the relative paucity of designs offered here. And indeed, every time I go back, I make a point to visit a Yodobashi Camera (a “Best Buy” equivalent) to check out the latest models — which amuses my wife to no end.

And though we’ll have to wait until we buy our “dream condo” before I get to buy my steam-cleaning laundry machine (no soap needed!), or the one that dispenses silver ions to dispatch odoriferous bacteria, it’s always fun to dream.

My father celebrated his 60th birthday by buying a bicycle. It was the first time in his life he’d bought one brand-new. (He’s never bought a car, not even a used one.)
I on the other hand, plan to celebrate my 35th birthday by buying a brand-new hybrid. Depending when the new Prius comes out, and depending on availability, this might be an early or a late birthday present. And I’ll give my dad our trusty, only-100,000-km driven 1992 Sentra.
I’ll definitely consider the new Honda hybrid, and will take the Chevy Volt for a spin, but realistically think I’m captivated by the Prius cachet: they were hybrid before hybrid was cool, and I want to support that. Also, half the US grid is coal-based (with dirty, old-school coal plants at that) — so I don’t see an environmental benefit for plug-in vehicles: you’re switching from a dirty fuel (oil) to a very dirty fuel (coal).

It’s true the Canadian grid is much different — only 16% comes from coal — but our grids are interconnected.

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The rumour seems to be that LG Chem has won the competition to be the Volt’s battery supplier. It’s a publicly-traded company, so if the rumour is true, there might be money to be made there… that is, if LG Chem is well-run, and the stock price doesn’t already reflect forward revenue expectations from the Volt…

A brilliant poster, devastatingly true. From greenupgrader (I forget where I linked to it from.)

I’ve been a near-daily reader (and nearly-never commenter) of The Oil Drum since 2005*. Simply put, it’s the premiere site for learning about energy issues, with a daily news round-up and many dedicated, thoughtful, and very-well-informed contributors, many of them from the fossil fuels industry.
One of the most important insights I’ve gained from the site is Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model, which posits that world oil exports will fall faster than overall world production. He first published it in January ‘06; I couldn’t find the original article, but these two links go over the issue nicely; the latter is quite timely, too.

To elaborate a little, as oil prices rise, economic expansion in oil-exporting countries means they’ll consume more of their own oil, leaving less for export. Even if demand from oil-importing countries merely stays steady, the same amount of money will be chasing a smaller amount of oil. Causing upward pressure on prices on the open market.
As an “early adopter” of the theory, it’s been nice to see the Export Land Model starting to get attention… and from the investor community, no less. See here and here.
So far, I don’t know of any celebrated newspaper opinionists penning / typing columns about it, so the ELM probably hasn’t yet hit the tipping point…
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Back then, before Katrina, when the price of oil was in the US$50 a barrel range, and The Oil Drum was still hosted by blogspot.

Through DailyKos, news that in New York’s 13th Congressional District (Staten Island), the field now includes:

• Francis H. Powers, GOP candidate
• Francis M. Powers, GOP candidate’s son, running for the Libertarian Party

Oh, to be a fly on the wall at that family’s Thanksgiving dinner this year…

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This really speaks to the problems the GOP is (oh-so-deservedly) having this election cycle.  They’re bleeding support from:

• libertarians, due to the Bush White House’s abuse of government power.  Heck, Ron Paul even prefers Obama over McCain!
• evangelical Christians, many of whom recognize that there’s a lot more to the Christian faith than opposing abortion and gay marriage, and who are tired of being (mis-)represented by the Religious Right.  Especially younger evangelical Christians.  While I don’t think Obama will get 40% of the evangelical vote (hat tip to HuffPo), I think he’ll do very well indeed.
• Hispanics — a demographic Karl Rove has tried desperately to court.  The GOP is unlikely to get many votes after launching their “illegal immigrant” crusade earlier this year.  Even if they personally like John McCain, I doubt many Hispanic Americans will want to support the GOP in any manner.

I think that 2006 was the first sign of a generational shift in US voting patterns, leftwards.  It’s not just that the demographics are becoming favourable to Democrats, as aptly outlined by Judis and Teixeira in The Emerging Democratic Majority.  (Note, I only read the blog, not the book — but the blog has now been absorbed into The Democratic Strategist blog, so the book’s probably the best place to get the argument.)

Apart from demographics, economics will also contribute to GOP woes in the near term — economic crises, such as the one we’re in now, tend to reduce trust in big business and their cronies, and focus voters more on questions of the public good.

Germany has been among the world’s leading supporters of wind power, and is the world’s leading supporter of solar photovoltaics.  And now, it looks like they’re set to do the same for geothermal.  (From RenewableEnergyWorld through Tyler at Clean Break.)

Oh, the industries we could develop with similarly far-sighted government policies…!
Canadians interested in learning what should be done would do well to read Hot Air, by Jeffrey Simpson, Marc Jaccard and Nic Rivers.  To my pleasant surprise, when I offered to lend my copy to our CEO, he took me up on the offer, finished it within the week.  He’s since begun speaking more forcefully about the need for constructive government policies for cleantech in Canada. 

The Wings dispatched the Pens, as I predicted.  Of course, I was far far far from alone.  The Pens did better than I thought they would, and I look forward to a rematch in ‘09.  Not that I’m predicting one mind you — but a rematch would make for an excellent “storyline” for the Finals, and an even better series.  As it was, even though the Pens displayed a North Stars-esque resilience*, they were heavily outplayed in almost every game.
I’m also happy to report I watched Game 5 all the way into triple overtime.  Not the longest game I’ve watched — I saw the Islanders-Capitals quadruple-overtime “Easter Epic” in ‘87 — but those marathons are always fun to watch.
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* a reference to the 1991 Minnesota North Stars, who had this uncanny ability to score right after their opponents did — a large reason they made it to the Finals.  I can’t find documentation of it, but I remember hearing that Penguins coach Bob Johnson once called a time out after a Penguins goal, to give his team a chance to gain some composure before Minnesota could come back at them.