Like father, unlike son
Through DailyKos, news that in New York’s 13th Congressional District (Staten Island), the field now includes:
- Francis H. Powers, GOP candidate
- Francis M. Powers, GOP candidate’s son, running for the Libertarian Party
Oh, to be a fly on the wall at that family’s Thanksgiving dinner this year…
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This really speaks to the problems the GOP is (oh-so-deservedly) having this election cycle. They’re bleeding support from:
- libertarians, due to the Bush White House’s abuse of government power. Heck, Ron Paul even prefers Obama over McCain!
- evangelical Christians, many of whom recognize that there’s a lot more to the Christian faith than opposing abortion and gay marriage, and who are tired of being (mis-)represented by the Religious Right. Especially younger evangelical Christians. While I don’t think Obama will get 40% of the evangelical vote (hat tip to HuffPo), I think he’ll do very well indeed.
- Hispanics — a demographic Karl Rove has tried desperately to court. The GOP is unlikely to get many votes after launching their “illegal immigrant” crusade earlier this year. Even if they personally like John McCain, I doubt many Hispanic Americans will want to support the GOP in any manner.
I think that 2006 was the first sign of a generational shift in US voting patterns, leftwards. It’s not just that the demographics are becoming favourable to Democrats, as aptly outlined by Judis and Teixeira in The Emerging Democratic Majority. (Note, I only read the blog, not the book — but the blog has now been absorbed into The Democratic Strategist blog, so the book’s probably the best place to get the argument.)
Apart from demographics, economics will also contribute to GOP woes in the near term — economic crises, such as the one we’re in now, tend to reduce trust in big business and their cronies, and focus voters more on questions of the public good.